Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news commodity currencies are in favour at the end of the week as global commodity prices get a halo boost from the taxes Americans are prepared to pay for commodities. Risk is in favour; 'greed is good' and blindness to the downside possibilities seems wilful. It helps that heavyweight investors have gone on their summer vacations.
But first, US initial jobless claims came in at 240,800 last week, an increase and a bit more than seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 1.91 mln people on these benefits, +111,000 or +6.2% or more than at this time last year. That is their highest level since 2021.
There was a smaller US Treasury 30yr bond auction earlier today and if it wasn't for the SOMA activity from the New York Fed, demand would have been lighter than at the prior event. In the end, it delivered a median yield of 4.84%, little-changed from the 4.80% at the prior equivalent event.
In Japan, their June producer prices were up +2.9% from a year ago, a notable easing from the +4.3% rise in March. In fact, from May, Japanese producer prices slipped marginally. From early 2022, there has been an overall trend of these price increases easing and they may be now heading into a bit of a deflationary period.
China's vehicle sales grew by almost +14% in June from the same month a year ago following an +11% rise in May. Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) surged more than +26% in June, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. In the first half of 2025, total vehicle sales climbed +11%, while NEV sales jumped more than +40%. They are on target for NEV sales to exceed 16 mln units - which is more than all vehicle sales in the US. China is on track for sales of 33 mln for the full year, easily the world's largest vehicle market.
The Korean central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% as expected. It last cut its rate in May.
Australian business turnover data has revealed that May activity was softish, recording a small slip from April. May was held back by a fall in their mining sector. But from a year ago, May 2025 was overall +5.9% higher on a current price basis.
Container freight rates fell -5% last week from the prior week, almost all on outbound cargoes from China. Overall rates are now half year-ago levels, although to be fair those year-ago levels were juiced up by the Red Sea crisis. Bulk cargo rates were little changed this week but are -25% lower than year-ago levels.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.35%, and up +1 bp from yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is holding at +47 bps. Their 1-5 curve is inverted by -14 bps and little-changed again. And their 3 mth-10yr curve now +4 bps positive. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.32% and down -1 bp from yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is firmish at 1.66%.
Wall Street is slightly firmer on the S&P500 and up +0.3% but again in record territory. Overnight European markets were mixed with London up +1.2 and Frankfurt down -0.4%, a reversal of yesterday's fortunes. Tokyo ended its Thursday session down -0.4%, Hong Kong was up +0.6%, and Shanghai was up +0.5% Singapore rose +0.4%. The ASX200 ended its Thursday session up +0.6%.
The price of gold will start today at US$3,317/oz, and up +US$9 from yesterday.
American oil prices are down -US$2 at US$66.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just over US$68.50/bbl.
The Australian dollar is now at 65.1 USc, down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Japanese yen we are up +80 bps at ¥95.1. Against the euro we are unchanged at 55.4 euro cents.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$113,549, a record high and up +4.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/-2.0%.