Public Policy
All eyes on Wednesday
The economic signals are pointing to a combination of a strong labour market and higher inflation, the ingredients for the RBA to move against these forces quickly. Financial markets sense the change and have quickly moved their pricing assumptions

The revenge of global imbalances
Barry Eichengreen explains why, after 20 years, major economies' external deficits and surpluses are again a focus of attention

'The states are spending like they are in lockdown': S&P
NSW and Queensland are singled out as at risk of a credit rating downgrade as infrastructure projects and entitlement claims mount, while tax increases become politically much harder

America's post-Trump China strategy
Stephen Roach thinks effective diplomacy will be impossible so long as the current US president is in office

What if we taxed what people spend, not what they earn?
Thinking outside the box: Marcelo Santos suggests replacing the progressive income tax with a progressive consumption tax could bring a range of extra benefits, especially if multi-year averaging was adopted too

Rogue hegemons are sabotaging the global economy
Arvind Subramanian explains how both the United States and China are making life harder for developing countries

The Japanese canary in the global debt coal mine
Barry Eichengreen weighs the implications of the Bank of Japan's announcement that it will soon consider raising interest rates

Only creative destruction will boost competitiveness
2025 Nobel laureate Philippe Aghion explains how advanced economies in Europe (or elsewhere) can find their way back to the technological frontier

Will China forcibly boost fertility?
Yi Fuxian thinks the positive effects of incentives to boost China's fertility rate will be temporary while more coercive measures are unlikely

Can AI be Asia's next growth engine?
Asia’s growth model is under intense strain, and rapid population aging will only make matters worse. But Lee Jong-Wha thinks the key to maintaining its momentum will be adopting AI, building human capital, and a framework of enabling institutions

Record numbers of younger women want to leave the US
Gallup polling shows that the desire to migrate among younger American women has quadrupled in the past decade - that's now 26 mln women who want to leave

Trump's dangerous liaison with Pakistan
Brahma Chellaney warns that flattery and the promise of personal enrichment are now driving US policy in South Asia

Is Bessent right about the Fed?
Willem Buiter consider the US central Bank's failings in light of recent criticism from the US secretary of the Treasury

RBA holds again, even as inflation worries mount
RBA holds again but starts to worry about inflation pressure they can no longer ignore. They are hoping those pressure are transitory

Supply-chain economics beats tariff politics
Jun Du explains how US trade policy has devastated American soybean farmers, and why the damage will be permanent

India's economy is stronger than Trump thinks
Shang-Jin Wei explains how India can turn recent setbacks into opportunities and extend its growth miracle

This time the RBA holds its fire
Despite growing signs of inflation rising and strongish labour markets, the RBA has held its cash rate target at 3.6% as widely expected

How can we account for crypto?
Tim Congdon highlights the challenges facing statisticians as opaque transactions erode trust in official data

South Korea's baby bust
Lee Jong-Wha asks how South Korea with the world's lowest fertility rate can avert demographic collapse

The US Fed's wrong move
Michael Strain argues that US interest rate cuts this year will have to be reversed in 2026 as inflation re-accelerates

IMF analysis shows a decline in private lending offsets increases in public borrowing; notable differences persist across countries and income groups
IMF analysis shows a decline in private lending offsets increases in public borrowing; notable differences persist across countries and income groups

India's reckoning with its dangerous neighbourhood
Nirupama Rao explains why India is increasingly anxious about political stability in neighboring countries

The twilight of Pax Americana
Koichi Hamada cannot see US leadership recovering from Donald Trump's bullying of trade partners

Global trade is winning Trump's war on it
Daniel Gros points out that even US import demand seems to be withstanding the introduction of tariffs

