Public Policy

Westpac is part of a growing group of analysts to revise their view of RBA policy: 25bp hikes in both March and May expected. Single hike still possible but not their base case

Antara Haldar praises Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney for discarding the fiction of a rules-based international order

With inflation now higher than previously expected, the RBA raised the cash rate in February. The question then becomes, how much more is coming and when? Westpac's Luci Ellis says another cash rate increase will occur, in May

The economic signals are pointing to a combination of a strong labour market and higher inflation, the ingredients for the RBA to move against these forces quickly. Financial markets sense the change and have quickly moved their pricing assumptions

Barry Eichengreen explains why, after 20 years, major economies' external deficits and surpluses are again a focus of attention

NSW and Queensland are singled out as at risk of a credit rating downgrade as infrastructure projects and entitlement claims mount, while tax increases become politically much harder

Stephen Roach thinks effective diplomacy will be impossible so long as the current US president is in office

Thinking outside the box: Marcelo Santos suggests replacing the progressive income tax with a progressive consumption tax could bring a range of extra benefits, especially if multi-year averaging was adopted too

Arvind Subramanian explains how both the United States and China are making life harder for developing countries

Barry Eichengreen weighs the implications of the Bank of Japan's announcement that it will soon consider raising interest rates

2025 Nobel laureate Philippe Aghion explains how advanced economies in Europe (or elsewhere) can find their way back to the technological frontier

Yi Fuxian thinks the positive effects of incentives to boost China's fertility rate will be temporary while more coercive measures are unlikely

Asia’s growth model is under intense strain, and rapid population aging will only make matters worse. But Lee Jong-Wha thinks the key to maintaining its momentum will be adopting AI, building human capital, and a framework of enabling institutions

Gallup polling shows that the desire to migrate among younger American women has quadrupled in the past decade - that's now 26 mln women who want to leave

Brahma Chellaney warns that flattery and the promise of personal enrichment are now driving US policy in South Asia

Willem Buiter consider the US central Bank's failings in light of recent criticism from the US secretary of the Treasury

RBA holds again but starts to worry about inflation pressure they can no longer ignore. They are hoping those pressure are transitory

Jun Du explains how US trade policy has devastated American soybean farmers, and why the damage will be permanent

The IMF wants policymakers to strengthen oversight of nonbank financial intermediaries, whose increasing interconnectedness with banks could exacerbate adverse shocks

Shang-Jin Wei explains how India can turn recent setbacks into opportunities and extend its growth miracle

Despite growing signs of inflation rising and strongish labour markets, the RBA has held its cash rate target at 3.6% as widely expected

Tim Congdon highlights the challenges facing statisticians as opaque transactions erode trust in official data

Lee Jong-Wha asks how South Korea with the world's lowest fertility rate can avert demographic collapse

Michael Strain argues that US interest rate cuts this year will have to be reversed in 2026 as inflation re-accelerates