Economy

Navneeraj Sharma & Arvind Subramanian identify political, economic, and fiscal weaknesses in China that could turn into a perfect storm

A big week ahead of central bank decisions; inflation elevated, while PMIs positive; Canada retail positive; EU inflation expectations hold; war drums beat louder; UST 10yr at 4.99%; gold holds low and oil holds high; AU$1 = 70.4 USc

House prices have recorded their steepest decline on record, with all eight capital cities experiencing a fall in the September quarter

US sentiment stays low but inflation expectations rise; US PMI's expanding; Japan, Taiwan, India & the EU all deliver expanding PMIs; Australia doesn't; election season starts; UST 10yr at 4.99%; gold falls and oil rises; AU$1 = 57 USc

Big Tech takes hits as investors seek safety; US jobless claims fall; Canada PPI jumps; China FDI in doldrums; EU sentiment retreats; freight rates rise; UST 10yr at 4.96%; gold holds and oil rises; AU$1 = 70.2 USc

Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argues that concerns over the AI buildout, bond yields, and public debt cannot be divorced from supply shocks

US mortgage activity drops sharply as home loan rates stay high; AI bond funding to get more expensive; Japanese exports strong; RBA sees worse inflation outlook; UST 10yr at 5.11%; gold holds and oil eases; AU$1 = 70.3 USc

Canadian inflation holds; China housing not improving, but GDP beats estimates; China retail weak but exports strong; global food prices & risks rise; UST 10yr at 5.14%; gold holds and oil stays well above US$100/bbl; AU$1 = 69.8 USc;

Singapore exports jump; US factories busy; US Govt finances a mess; major street protests in India & France; Australia new home sales retreat; UST 10yr at 5.10%; gold holds and oil stays above US$100/bbl; AU$1 = 56.5 USc

Markets recoil on rising risks; US Govt deficit balloons; Warsh equivocates; Ueda clear; Singapore exports surge; India street protests spread; Scaramucci record broken; UST 10yr at 5.09%; gold holds and oil jumps; AU$1 = 69.4 USc

Global government bond yields fall and flatten; US PPI jumps more than expected as tariff missteps bite; China to cull excess airlines; Aussie jobs shrink; UST 10yr at 5.08%; gold firms slightly and oil rises; AU$1 = 69.1 USc

Dambisa Moyo catalogues key risks, from high inflation and soaring debt to market concentration and political polarisation

US CPI up more than expected; Beige Book limp; US Social Security bribe; China CPI modest; China exports strong; China new bank lending recovers; UST 10yr at 5.18%; gold lower and oil firmer; AU$1 = 69.6 USc

Oil prices stay high; IMF upgrades world growth; US data wobbly; Japanese PPI eases; Aussie business sentiment dips; UST 10yr at 5.22%; gold holds and oil mixed; AU$1 = 69.8 USc

Russia ignores Trump's 'energy ceasefire'; Nobel Prize in economics; more Fed hiking signals; China car sales disappoint; India inflation jumps; UST 10yr at 5.24%; gold dips and oil rises; AU$1 = 69.6 USc

Economic data are often revised. Sometimes the revisions change the story; sometimes they do not. Either way, Westpac's Luci Ellis says they argue for humility when using data in policy debates

Eyes on US inflation and Wall Street earnings; Japanese machine tool orders strong; Malaysia get growth without many jobs; American sentiment falls again; EU & China tackle car trade; UST 10yr at 5.25%; gold and oil rise; AU$1 = 68.9 USc

Eswar Prasad and Thomas Riveros see promising growth trajectories in both developed and developing economies, despite inflationary pressures

US sentiment falls again; Canada jobs market shrinks; Japanese machine tool orders strong; Malaysia strong; EU & China agree to cut some big Chinese car exports; UST 10yr at 5.25%; gold and oil rise; AU$1 = 69.8 USc

US data positive but support for the UST 30yr soft; US farm debt problems jump; Taiwan stars yet again; Aussie inflation expectations rise; WTO raises trade forecasts; UST 10yr at 5.24%; gold holds, oil rises; AU$1 = 62.5 USc

US mortgage rates jump; US inflation expectations jump; US Fed members aligned in inflation fight; China's gold holding jump; India hikes; German factories busy; UST 10yr at 5.29%; gold soft, oil holds high; AU$1 = 69.6 USc

Second tier US data quite mixed; Canada reports larger trade surplus; China expansion slows; Australian consumer sentiment weak; UST 10yr at 5.26%; gold firmish but oil eases again; AU$1 = 69.8 USc

Benchmark rates rise; Brazil votes; US service sector expands; Canada's doesn't; China holiday spending good; France stressed; UST 10yr at 5.34%; gold softer and oil eases slightly despite renewed attacks; AU$1 = 69.7 USc

US payrolls don't grow, other US data soft; China holiday migration hits record; EU inflation rises; Brazil votes; UST 10yr at 5.28%; gold softer and oil holds high on renewed attacks; AU$1 = 69.6 USc