Economy

US inflation surges, confidence tanks. Canada jobs market stable; China inflation low but rises; Taiwan exports star again; diesel armada heads for Australia; UST 10yr at 4.31%; gold eases as oil dips slightly; AU$1 = 70.8 USc; Bitcoin up

US data weaker; Canada politics shift; Japan sentiment falls; German exports rise; cybersecurity threat from AI; freight rates stable overall; UST 10yr at 4.29%; gold rises as oil higher; AU$1 = 70.9 USc

Middle East 'ceasefire' shaky. Iran gets gatekeeper advantage. Fed watches inflation risks rise. China truck sales hit 5yr high. EU retail activity rises.

More bellicose threats from the US as artificial deadline looms; dairy prices hold; US data weakens; China reserves hold; Aussie inflation jumps; UST 10yr at 4.34%; gold firm as oil holds high; AU$1 = 69.5 USc

US service sector slows but still expanding; prices rises come fast; Canadian services contract less; Singapore retail takes a tumble; high India services growth eases; UST 10yr at 4.34%; gold eases as oil jumps again; AU$1 = 69.1 USc

US data modest but with heavy inflation signals; Canada PMI's stall; other main global PMIs upbeat; Albanese warns of difficulties ahead; UST 10yr at 4.31%; gold up and oil eases; AU$1 =69.3 USc

US data mixed; Canada GDP expands; China PMI's expand; Japan & Korea industrial production weaker; passenger air travel rises; UST 10yr at 4.31%; gold up and oil eases; AU$1 = 57.4 USc

US struggles to smooth over Trump mistakes; enormous China current account surplus; China now dominates aluminium markets; air cargo activity surges; UST 10yr at 4.35%; gold and oil rise; AU$1 = 68.6 USc

Westpac has revised its RBA rates view, now sees two extra hikes, with a 4.85% peak, and later reversal

US sentiment falls further. China and US trade anti-trade probes. China's profits rise. Countries enact various fuel affordability measures. Diesel crisis grows.

Westpac's Luci Ellis says this latest Middle East conflict is not Venezuela, or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or COVID. Policymakers should not use “the last war” as a template for the current one

US sentiment jerks lower; oil bosses won't drill; China reacts to new US trade probes; China profits rise; six countries cut fuel taxes for their consumers; UST 10yr at 4.44%; gold rises; oil rises; AU$1 = 68.8 USc;

OECD sees modest growth but higher inflation; US data mixed; UST auctions bring higher yields; Norway holds but now sees rate rises; global freight rates rise only modestly; UST 10yr at 4.39%; gold falls; oil rises; AU$1 = 69 USc

Markets in relief rally as US apparently retreats in Middle East; US mortgage applications dive; China resumes ship trade to Middle East; German mood sours; UST 10yr at 4.34%; gold rises; oil falls; AU$1 = 69.6 USc;

Private credit risks build in the shadow of the oil crisis; PMI's show global economic stutter; sulfur price zooms; jet fuel prices leap; UST 10yr at 4.36%; gold firms slightly; oil rises; AU$1 = 69.7 USc

Trump chickening out on Iran strategy; US data soft; EU sentiment dives; moderates start to win again in Europe; UST 10yr at 4.34%; gold down further; oil dips; AU$1 = 70.1 USc

IEA gives ominous warning; Taiwan exports up again; China FDI sags; South Australia poll result; Fitch downgrades NZ; UST 10yr at 4.39%; gold dives; reason for silver surge revealed; oil rises; AU$1 = 70.2 USc

Investors panic over inflation threats; IEA sees historic disruption; Taiwan export orders up +24%; China FDI weak; UST 10yr at 4.39%; gold soft; reason for silver surge revealed; oil rises again; AU$1 = 70.4 USc

US data weaker but mostly second-tier; nine central banks decide to hold their policy rates; Australian labour market marginally softer; UST 10yr at 4.28%; gold dives; oil & gas stay very high; AU$1 = 70.5 USc

US Fed holds as expected; US data weaker; Bank of Canada holds; Malaysia walks away from US tariff deal; Korean strike threat another supply chain risk; UST 10yr at 4.26%; gold drops; oil rises; AU$1 = 70.8 USc

US hiring weakens; North American real estate markets generally soft; German sentiment undermined; RBA hikes; airlines see passenger demand doubling; UST 10yr at 4.20%; gold firms; oil steady; AU$1 = 71 USc

US economy delivers mixed results; Canada sees lower inflation; China reports positive data; India exports hold; eyes on the RBA; UST 10yr at 4.23%; gold falls again and oil steadies; AU$1 = 70.6 USc

Apart from Hormuz, all eyes will be on inflation threats and central bank responses this week; US data weaker; India loan growth strong; China loan growth modest; UST 10yr at 4.28%; gold falls and oil rises; AU$1 = 70.1 USc

Raghuram Rajan considers whether the future with AI is one of widespread job losses - and how governments are likely to respond