Economy

US jobless claims rise, factory surveys improve; US rural sector suffering; China bank lending improves; Australian inflation expectations stay elevated; UST 10yr at 4.16%; gold stays high; oil drops hard; AU$1 = 57.4 USc

US data mixed with dodgy aspects; China trade surplus huge; Japanese machine tool orders jump; South Korean surprise; global growth stable; UST 10yr at 4.14%; gold up, silver zooms again; oil on hold; AU$1 = 66.8 USc

US inflation unchanged; US jobs weak; sentiment surveys waver; Japan data good, snap election likely; Australia sentiment eases; UST 10yr at 4.17%; gold stable, silver higher; oil up; AU$1 = 66.8 USc

Mohamed El-Erian thinks that last year's economic tailwinds will give way to more challenging conditions as the AI narrative fades

Bogus claims against Fed boss being watched closely; Indian CPI stay low; Australian household spending rises; Google's AI chops power its valuation; UST 10yr at 4.18%; gold hits new record, oil stable; AU$1 = 67.2 USc

Unlike the sanguine outlook reviews from many others, David Skilling says 2026 will be another disruptive year of structural global economic and geopolitical change

Eyes on some big key US decisions including for tariffs; better balance for Canada jobs; strong Indian loan growth, Taiwan exports; EU cements huge new FTA; UST 10yr at 4.18%; gold zooms, oil firms; AU$1 = 66.9 USc

US data weakish across the board; Japan household spending rises; China inflation stays low; Indian loan growth rises; EU retail rises; huge new trade bloc formed; UST 10yr at 4.18%; gold zooms, oil firms; AU$1 = 66.8 USc

Less than a quarter of beef exports to China will be vulnerable to their new higher tariffs. James Laurenceson explains both exporters and Chinese importers have many ways to make this hit less onerous than it seems

US jobs data soft ahead of payrolls report; US trade data weaker; China property declines; German factory orders jump; air cargo rises fast except in the US; UST 10yr at 4.18%; gold on hold; oil firms; AU$1 = 66.9 USc

While overall export levels are maintaining their high levels, exports of ores & minerals are falling, fuel exports are falling faster, and coal exports are diving. Saving the day is the rural sector - and gold

US hiring weak, job openings at 14 month low; US services PMIs differ; China to follow loose monetary policy; Australia CPI dips; UST 10yr at 4.14%; gold dips from highs; oil down at 5yr lows; AU$1 = 67.3 USc

Commodities surge, including dairy prices; US services sector cools, car sales modest; China car sales it record; notable China climate shift; UST 10yr at 4.18%; precious metals all up sharply; oil lower; AU$1 surges to 67.4 USc

US factories contract; US flu season 'moderately severe'; China service sector expands slower; EU fully adopts CBAM to international grumbles; UST 10yr at 4.16%; gold up sharply; oil low & stable; AU$1 = 67.1 USc

China pushes internal growth plans, restricts silver exports; Korean exports rise fast; US factories stutter; Aussie house price growth shows signs of exhaustion; UST 10yr at 4.19%; gold up slightly; ditto oil; AU$1 = 66.9 USc

Nouriel Roubini warns that Europe faces a future of relative economic backwardness as global competition intensifies

US trapping itself in stagflation; China stuck with subsidies for internal growth; Korean exports star; India holds expansion; EU turns down; UST 10yr at 4.19%; gold little-changed; oil stays low; AU$1 = 66.8 USc

US Fed minutes show expected divisions, likely 2026 rate cuts; regional surveys negative; Korean data dips; China moves on local support; UST 10yr at 4.13%; precious metals recover some; oil stays low; AU$1 = 67 USc

US data mixed; Japan eyes virtuous cycle; India factories busier; UST 10yr at 4.12%; gold drops back with other precious metals; copper and nickel climb; oil firms; AU$1 = 66.9 USc; bitcoin heads for -7% annual drop

China takes another crack at juicing its domestic demand; US data mixed; Taiwan still the Asian star; precious metals keep rising; eyes on retail reports; UST 10yr at 4.13%; oil retreats again; AU$1 = 67.1 USc

Michael Spence points out that the returns on today's investments depend on economy-wide adoption, not frontier development

US data mixed; mixed Asian industrial production data; China beef producers call for protection from imports; freight rates hold; UST 10yr at 4.14%; metals prices rise; oil retreats sharpy; AU$1 = 67.1 USc

Kenneth Rogoff highlights the risks created by policy uncertainty, geopolitical instability, and weak fundamentals

US consumers & factories downbeat, but official data surprises with sharp gains; Taiwan exports orders leap; semaglutide now in pill-form; UST 10yr at 4.17%; precious & other metals prices surge; oil rises; AU$1 = 66.9 USc