Economy

Breakfast briefing: US glummer post-Fed, rest of world upbeat
US data lackluster; Canada posts surprise trade surplus; Japan business sentiment rises; Australian labour market weaker; UST 10yr at 4.12%; gold jumps, silver at another new record; oil falls; AU$1 = 66.7 USc

Better news but bad decisions
US data generally positive; Japan ready for rate rise, machine tool orders strong; Taiwan exports stars again; German exports rise; UST 10yr at 4.17%; gold holds, silver at new record; oil falls on glut fears; AU$1 = 66.5 USc

Breakfast briefing: Long bond yields keep on rising
US inflation expectations stable. US forced to subsidise farmers. Japan GDP shrinks. China exports zoom, surplus tops U$1 tln. German industrial production rises

Breakfast briefing: What will the US Fed do this week?
US credit card debt rises, sentiment less bad; Canadian jobs rise on part-time work; China reserves inch up; India cuts; Japan spending falls; FAO food prices dip; UST 10yr at 4.14%; gold slips, oil holds; AU$1 = 66.4 USc

Weekend briefing: Long bond yields jump
US data stops weakening; the IMF cheers Canada's resilience; India cuts its policy rate; global food prices dip; wheat and copper in focus; UST 10yr at 4.14%; gold firmish but silver jumps again, oil firms; AU$1 = 66.4 USc

Breakfast briefing: Freight rates on the move up
US labour pressures remain; EU retail sales rise; Australian household spending up; supply chain pressures ease; but freight rates rise sharply this week; UST 10yr at 4.10%; gold eases lightly as oil firms slightly; AU$1 = 66.2 USc

Breakfast briefing: American SMEs hit hard
US data mixed but hurt by shrinking payrolls; China services expansion slows; China local govt debt in focus; Australia grows less than expected; UST 10yr at 4.07%; gold firms as does oil; AU$1 = 66 USc;

Q3 economic activity rises less than expected
The latest GDP data shows private investment growth driven by machinery and equipment for data centers. Essential household spending rose as discretionary spending dropped. But the household saving ratio rose

Breakfast briefing: The OECD sees large economies slowing
OECD watches global growth ease back; US signals mixed; Japanese sentiment rises; Australia building permits shrink; UST 10yr at 4.10%; gold eases and oil soft; AU$1 = 65.6 USc;

Breakfast briefing: December starts on a negative note
US factories falter as do Canadian factories; India industrial production stops expanding; China PMI retreat confirmed; UST 10yr at 4.09%; gold firm, silver surges again and oil soft; AU$1 = 65.5 USc

Breakfast briefing: The run into Christmas underway
Eyes on retail sales; India GDP surges; China PMIs dip with factory sector contraction longest on record; Japan, Korea & Canada improve; UST 10yr at 4.02%; gold firm, silver surges and oil holds; AU$1 = 65.5 USc

Breakfast briefing: Global activity firmer
Canada, Japan, South Korea and India all post generally upbeat data while eyes turn to US holiday retail impulse; air travel and air cargo rise; UST 10yr at 4.02%; gold rises, silver surges and oil firmish; AU$1 = 65.5 USc

Breakfast briefing: The final 2025 retail push underway
Global eyes on end-of-year retail demand; Canadian earnings rise; China profits fall; APRA worried about housing loan risks; Aussie investment jumps; UST 10yr at 4.00%; gold dips and oil firms; AU$1 = 65.3 USc

Breakfast briefing: Local rates and currencies get a reset
Pre-holiday data releases flood US markets, a mixed set; Singapore factories very busy; Hong Kong tragedy; Australian inflation rises unexpectedly; UST 10yr at 4.00%; gold up and oil firms; AU$1 = 65.2 USc;

CPI rose 3.8% in the year to October 2025
Inflation up unexpectedly, complicating the RBA's policy track. This is the highest inflation reading since the monthly data series began in April 2025

Breakfast briefing: American consumer confidence fades and retail sales growth cools
US data droops as their consumer mood turns negative; Korean mood brightens; Taiwan follows suit; UST 10yr at 4.00%; gold up and oil lower; AU$1 = 64.5 USc

Breakfast briefing: Markets ignore US holiday shopping questions
Eyes on US holiday shopping impulse; US factory data soft; ditto Canada; Singapore inflation firmer; Beijing considers big changes; UST 10yr at 4.04%; gold up and oil stays down; AU$1 = 64.6 USc;

Breakfast briefing: Q3 turning out globally positive
China FDI weak; India activity strong; Japanese exports rise; Italy gets ratings upgrade; US activity positive but inflation high; China not buying US soybeans; UST 10yr at 4.06%; gold down and oil stays low; AU$1 = 56.1 USc

Weekend briefing: Sharp weekly losses
Global PMIs mostly positive; US sentiment at record low; Japanese exports strong; China foreign investment stays weak; equities drop for week; bitcoin falls hard again; UST 10yr at 4.07%; gold up and oil down; AU$1 = 64.6 USc

Robots, humans and donkeys
No, AI probably won't take your (whole) job, but the future workforce will look different. Fortunately the labour force is already shifting in mostly the right direction. Policy and social changes are nonetheless needed, says Westpac's Luci Ellis

Breakfast briefing: Some good data draws investor scepticism
Restarted US data gives mixed results; Canada PPI rises; Taiwan export order growth high; China hooked on subsidies; German PPI low; IMF warns Australia; UST 10yr at 4.11%; gold and oil soft; AU$1 = 64.5 USc

Risks and vulnerabilities
In its latest review of the financial system, APRA is seeing some signs of a pick-up in higher risk lending, particularly high debt-to-income borrowing by investors

IMF calls for increased indirect taxation (GST), reintroducing a resource revenue tax, and removing income tax exemptions
The IMF likes where Australia is at, but sees serious risks ahead. It wants to see "comprehensive tax reform" and "greater spending efficiency" to hold on to fiscal sustainability
