Eyes on US holiday shopping impulse; US factory data soft; ditto Canada; Singapore inflation firmer; Beijing considers big changes; UST 10yr at 4.04%; gold up and oil stays down; AU$1 = 64.6 USc;

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect Australia, with news holiday season retail cheerleaders may have to work harder this year to induce spending.

First, Americans are expected to be out retail shopping this week in record numbers, up almost +2% this year than last year. But doubts are also rising about how much they will spend. Research shows shoppers are wary of high prices driven by tariff-taxes, and are hitting the streets mainly in search of bargains and with stricter budgets. The recoil that "everything is more expensive" comes as other surveys show Americans refuse to dip into savings to pay for holiday shopping. That is leaving many observers suspecting this year's holiday sales volumes may be stunted.

And local manufacturers are finding that retailers are not ordering like they used to.

The Dallas Fed’s Texas factory survey retreated in November (to -10.4, from -5 in October), a fourth consecutive monthly contraction in manufacturing activity and the steepest since June. Interestingly, outlook views worsened even though they reported a modest rise in new orders. Cost pressures rose.

Meanwhile, Canada's manufacturing sales data for October turned negative, although not as negative as expected. This comes after an unexpectedly upbeat September, so more of a settling than a decline.

Across the Pacific in Singapore, they are getting another whiff of CPI inflation. Their rate climbed to 1.2% in October from a year ago, from 0.7% in September and the highest level since January. Food prices rose the most in six months.

And new information from China's recently adopted 5-Year Plan, is helpful in put Beijing's influence on the giant Chinese economy in perspective. There are calls for more central control of the economy by Beijing, because they provide only about 15% of all budgeted public expenditure, the rest from provincial and local government. Some want that to rise to 40%. For perspective, the OECD average is 60% from central government.

Here in Australia, the new age-restrictions for social media platforms will come into force on December 10, almost all of them on American-owned platforms and all of those enable unrestricted criminal communications and also enable users to bully and exploit minors (Americans regards that as 'free speech'). It is a move that is being watched by many countries, the latest being Malaysia. So far, no American operator has said it will obey Australian law in Australia.

On the geopolitical trade front, China has made some more soybean purchases, but relatively minor ones. It does keep the Americans interested, but so far in the 2025/26 season they have bought about 12% of their trade-deal agreement level.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.04%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +53 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now inverted by -2 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now +10 bps positive. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.82%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.45%, down -2 bps from yesterday at this time. 

Wall Street has started its week strongly with the S&P500 up +1.6% and more than the weekend futures market signaled, and all about Big Tech. European markets started their week mixed with London down -0.1% but Frankfurt up +0.7%. Tokyo was closed for a national holiday yesterday. Hong Kong rose +2.0% in Monday trade but Shanghai ended unchanged. Singapore was up +0.6%. The ASX200 ended its Monday trade up +1.3%.

The price of gold will start today at US$4096/oz, and up +US$32 from yesterday.

American oil prices have largely held from yesterday to be just under US$58.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$62.50/bbl.

The Australian dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at just on 64.6 USc. Against the Japanese yen we are up +20 bps at ¥101.3. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 56 euro cents. 

The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,268 and up +0.8% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.

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