US labour pressures remain; EU retail sales rise; Australian household spending up; supply chain pressures ease; but freight rates rise sharply this week; UST 10yr at 4.10%; gold eases lightly as oil firms slightly; AU$1 = 66.2 USc

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect Australia, with news of some notable and sudden rises in freight rates.

But first, US jobless claims came in lower last week than expected at 197,200 in a holiday-affected period. Seasonal factors had expected a lesser decrease. There are now 1.7 mln people on these benefits nationally. A year ago, there were 1.66 mln on them.

The November job cut tracking shows it was less than in October, coming in for the latest month at 77,000. That ends a string of outsized monthly cutbacks although it is +24% higher than year-ago levels. In fact for only the sixth time since 1993 has the year-to-date level been higher than 1.1 mln and the 2025 level is now the highest since the pandemic.

There was also catchup data out overnight for US factory orders for September. They were little-changed from August but were +5.3% higher than year-ago levels. They are still struggling to recover official stats and no revised dates are available for their October or November updates.

Meanwhile the NY Feds tracking of global supply chain pressure shows it is easing. Their index eased to -0.16 in November, weakening from -0.09 in October. The index reflects deviations in global supply chain conditions relative to its historical average, with negative values indicating below-average pressure.

EU retail sales were up +1.6% from a year ago in volume terms in October, better than the expected +1.2% gain. But that was a slowing in their retail expansion from what they have had for most of 2025.

Here in Australia, household spending rose +5.6% in October from the same month a year ago, and that was its fastest rise since November 2023. It was up +1.3% from September alone, its fastest pace since January 2024 on that basis. Spending on all categories except fuel and health costs rose notably in the month. This data adds to the chance the RBA will be raising rates in 2026.

Global container freight rates rose +7% last week from the prior week, ending the recent three-week retreats. Outbound rates from China to the US and to Europe rose while trans-Atlantic rates dipped. Overall container freight rates are now -45% lower than year-ago levels. Also rising, and even more sharply were bulk cargo rates, up +18% from a week ago and these rates are now +132% higher than year-ago levels.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.10%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +58 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now positive by +9 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is positive by +32 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is +2 bps higher at 1.85%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.69%, up +7 bps.

Wall Street has started its Thursday with the S&P500 little-changed. Overnight, European markets were all up, between London's +0.2% and Frankfurt's +0.8%. Yesterday, Tokyo closed up +1.1, Hong Kong was up a very strong +2.3%, but Shanghai ended down -0.1%. Singapore closed down -0.4%. The ASX200 ended its Thursday session up +0.3%.

The price of gold will start today at US$4209/oz, and down -US$9 from yesterday.

American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$63.50/bbl.

The Australian dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday, now at just on 66.2 USc. Against the Japanese yen we also up +20 bps at ¥102.5. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 56.8 euro cents.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,607 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just over +/- 1.1%.