US consumers & factories downbeat, but official data surprises with sharp gains; Taiwan exports orders leap; semaglutide now in pill-form; UST 10yr at 4.17%; precious & other metals prices surge; oil rises; AU$1 = 66.9 USc

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect Australia, with news of an odd disconnect between official US data and data reported by other agencies.

First, US durable goods orders fell in October from September and by much more than expected. But that did leave them +5.9% higher than year ago levels. Non-defense capital goods orders rose +5.2% on that year-ago basis.

ADP reported a third straight week of private hiring seasonal gains, up an average of +11,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending December 6, 2025. The prior week was revised slightly higher.

US industrial production rose nationally in November from October to be +2.5% higher than year-ago levels.

But the latest factory survey from the Richmond Fed is still quite negative for this mid-Atlantic states region in December. And their services survey inched lower to being more negative too.

Meanwhile the US Conference Board sentiment survey reported that consumer confidence fell again in December and remained well below this year’s January peak. Four of five components of the overall index fell, while one was at a level signaling notable weakness.

Standing in contrast to all this granular detail, the US has officially released its Q3-2025 GDP which was up sharply from Q2. Apparently everything is growing strongly, up +2.3% from a year ago, up +4.3% from the prior quarter. Analysts had expected this result to be lower, not higher than Q2. This report claimed factories are booming (+5.6%), and that personal consumption was up +2.8% from a year ago. Corporate profits were up +9.1% on the same basis. The report also said prices rose +2.7% from a year ago, the highest since mid-2023.

North of the border, in Canada, they report GDP monthly, and their October report shows a dip that wiped out September's gain, mostly due to a slowing factory sector. But the same report forecast a rise in November.

Across the Pacific, China Beijing is huddled in its National People's Congress Standing Committee meetings.

Taiwan continues to report very strong industry gains, this time for November export orders. They surged +39.5% from a year ago to a record US$72.9 bln in the month, even faster than the outstanding +25.1% gain in October. The increase was largely driven by stronger growth in electronic products but they did see slower growth in order for machinery. Not a decrease, just a slower pace of growth.

And we should probably note that the US FDA has been reported to have approved a pill version of the weight-loss drug Wegovy. Until now the semaglutide treatment has only been by injection. Still, it and competing brands have become wildly popular. So much so, they are distorting food consumption patterns. This latest pill-form upgrade will likely make them even more popular.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, little-changed from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +64 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now positive by +21 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is positive by +55 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.83%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 2.03%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.78%, down -3 bps from yesterday. 

Wall Street is slightly firmer with the S&P500 up +0.4% and that may be enough to claim a new record high. But European markets were mixed between Frankfurt's +0.2%, and Paris's -0.2% dip. Tokyo ended its Tuesday session unchanged, Hong Kong was down -0.1% and Shanghai was up +0.1%. Singapore had another good day, up +0.6%. The ASX200 ended its Tuesday with a +1.1% gain and the best of the markets we follow. 

The price of gold will start today at US$4478/oz, and up +US$41 from yesterday and again, a new record high. Silver has surged to, up another +US$2 to just on US$71/oz, and also a new record high. Platinum hit US$2262/oz and up +US$139/oz, and we make that also a new all-time record high.

Aluminium is back to a three year high, and copper is pushing up, back towards its all-time peak in July.

American oil prices are up almost +50 USc from yesterday at just under US$58.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$62.50/bbl.

The Australian dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday, now at just over 66.9 USc. Against the Japanese yen we are also up +30 bps at ¥104.6. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 56.8 euro cents.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,813 and down -1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed modest, at just under +/- 1.5%.