US data mixed; Japan's exports strong; EU sentiment rises; Australian labour market good; container freight rates fall; UST 10yr at 4.25%; gold still rising; oil falls; AU$1 = 68.3 USc;

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect Australia with news the US dollar is being marked down as demand for precious metal hedges rises.

But first in the US there were 260,000 initial jobless claims last week, down -71,000 from the prior week and a marginally smaller change that the -73,000 change seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 2.21 mln people on these benefits, marginally less than the 2.24 mln a year ago. Two years ago, pre-Trump, there were 1.75 mln people on these benefits.

US real personal income rose +1.0% in November from the same month a year ago. On this inflation-adjusted basis it has been flat since April 2025. But real personal consumption expenditures rose +2.6%. On an inflation-adjusted basis this is the same pace of rise that started in April 2021. It has been driven recently by services and non-durable goods. While the PCE data is still within the Fed's inflation band, the income drag will be worrying policymakers. The spending rise can't be maintained.

The latest regional Fed factory survey, this one from the Kansas City Fed, shows no improvement from its dour base. It is still negative.

Malaysia's central bank reviewed its monetary policy and related policy rate overnight and made no change to its 2.75% level. They have a strong economic expansion underway, and inflation is low.

Japan’s exports rose +5.1% in December from the same month a year ago, the fourth monthly increase and reaching a record value. As good as that was, analysts had expected a rise of +6.1%. Imports climbed +5.3% on the same basis, the fastest pace in 11 months and much faster than November’s +1.3% rise.

The EU's consumer sentiment survey for January was marginally better (less worse) than for December - again. This continues the slow grinding improvement from its depths in September 2022 and halving that negative level. But it is still negative at double the negative pre-pandemic. Still it is on an improved trajectory and that is in sharp contrast to the US where the similar UofM survey is now deeply negative with a recent deterioration and half the level it was pre-pandemic

Here in Australia, our labour market performed well in December. Employment increased by +65,000 in the month to 14.65 mln, with full time employment up +54,800 and part-time employment up +10,400. Hours worked rose. As a consequence their jobless rate fell to 4.1%, well below the prior 4.3% and the expected 4.4%. This probably ends any chance of a rate cut early February and brings forward the chance of a rate hike in 2026. Everything now depends on next week's CPI outcome where there is upside risk to November's 3.4% CPI rate now.

Staying here  in Australia, job ad portal Seek is saying their platform shows job ads dropped -1.2% in December from November, and are down -3.5% from the same month a year ago. Applications per job ad fell -0.3% in December, "demonstrating a slightly sharper year-end decline in candidate activity than usual".

And Australian unicorn Airwallex is to be investigated by the money laundering regulator AUSTRAC. They suspect "serious non-compliance" by the global payments platform, specialising in moving money internationally for dodgy clients.

And we should probably note that the Trump Administration has advanced its role in granting licenses to mine the seabed in international waters. It is currently mapping resources off Samoa, and it has granted its first license to mine in international water to a US miner. The US only recognises a 12 mile country claim, so vast areas are now open to grant permits for their firms to mine. There is potential trouble ahead on jurisdictional issues.

Global container freight rates fell -10% last week from the prior week to be -43% below year-ago levels. Bulk cargo freight rates rose +16% in the past week to be double year-ago levels.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.25%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +65 bps (slightly flatter). Their 1-5 curve is now at +32 bps (slightly steeper) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at +58 bps (slightly flatter). The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.83%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 2.27%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.84%, up +8 bps from yesterday on the labour market signals. 

Wall Street is in its Thursday session with the S&P500 up +0.6% but still not back to where it started the week. Overnight European markets were higher between London's tiny +0.1% rise and Frankfurt's +1.3% surge. Yesterday Tokyo closed up +1.7%. Hong Kong was up +0.2%. Shanghai was up another minor +0.1%. Singapore rose +0.4%. The ASX200 ended up +0.7%. 

The price of gold will start today at US$4909/oz, and up another +US$66 from yesterday and a new record again. Silver is up +US$2.50/oz at US$96/oz and also a record high.

American oil prices are down -US$1 from yesterday at just on US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$64/bbl.

The Australian dollar is firmer from yesterday, up +40 bps to 68.3 USc as the USD is devalued in financial markets. Against the Ja[panese yen we are up +80 bps at ¥108.2. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 58.2 euro cents.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,026 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.