China returns after CNY holiday to IMF critique; Japan & India rise; Malaysia exports swell; US tariff decision; US data tame & US growth slows; UST 10yr at 4.09%; gold rises, oil up again; AU$1 = 70.8 USc

Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend with news the latest official data shows US growth slowed sharply in in the final quarter of 2025.

But first in the week ahead, the main focus locally will be on the January CPI, along with weekly earnings data. And Singapore, Germany and France will also release CPI data. South Korea and Thailand will have central bank rate reviews this week.

In China, their financial markets will re-open after their week-long Spring Festival shutdown, but may people will still be holidaying for Chinese New Year. But apart from a no-change Loan Prime Rate decision, little economic data is expected from them.

Staying in China, the IMF has urged them to cut industrial subsidies and pivot quicker to consumption-led growth, warning its export-driven model is fueling global trade tensions and damaging others.

Japanese inflation fell to 1.5% in January from 2.1% in December, the lowest since March 2022. Food inflation fell to a 15-month low to 3.9% vs 5.1% in December, reduced by the slowest rise in rice prices in 18 months.

Meanwhile the Japanese PMIs rose at their fastest pace since May 2023, and both their factory sector and their services sector expansion rates are rising. New orders rose faster, and prices rose as well but only modestly in February.

In India, they reported an even faster pace of expansion but that is bringing even faster price rises and well above the recent levels. The Indian economy is clearly over-heating.

Malaysia’s exports soared almost +20% in January from a year ago, exceeding market forecasts of a +14% pace and well above the +10% gain in December. This is a three year high, driven by demand from China.

The big weekend news that affects international trade was that the US Supreme Court rejected Trump's sweeping global tariffs in 6-3 decision, ruling that he exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. That likely means he will have to refund US$175 bln collected so far.

However, Trump rejected that he has to abide by their decision, and imposed a blanket 10% tariff on 'all' imports in his "up you" response. Then, because this was not well received, he raised it the rate to 15% the next day. Beef imports were exempted however. It is a curious fact that he recognises his tariff-taxes affect households, but persists in the nutty belief that foreigners are paying them. He is Making America Unaffordable Again.

(And you might like some pushback news. It's not economy-related, but the loud, brash New Jersey legislators have passed the Fight Unlawful Conduct and Keep Individuals and Communities Empowered act, which is yet to be signed into law by their Governor, but probably will be. The acronym is coarse in a New Jersey sort of way but the message is clear.)

Countries who made deals with Trump are likely to be in a lose-lose situation. Those who didn't (China, Brazil for example) will benefit.

Financial market reactions were surprisingly tame in Friday This is probably because those paying these tariff-taxes are American companies, the ones who will get any refunds. Whether it will stay like that is uncertain because Trump is likely to frustrate any refund process. More worrying, conflict with Iran now seems more likely as tariff and Epstein distractions. Oil prices rose. Other as yet unexpected distractions are possible too.

The US Q4-2025 GDP advanced estimate came in at an annual expansion rate of +1.4%, far less than the Q3-2025 rate of +4.4% and more than half the expected level. That makes the 2025 GDP rise as +2.2%, its lowest since the pandemic and prior to that its lowest since 2016.

Sales of new single-family houses in the US in December were at the annual rate of 745,000, -1.7% lower than the November rate by up +3.8% from the December 2024 level. This is higher than most months since 2023, but well below the 1 mln ln rate in 2020.

The latest factory PMI for the US, the S&P Global version, reports the slowest business growth for ten months in February amid weak demand, high prices and bad weather.

American consumer sentiment has stagnated in February with very little change from January to remain -12.5% lower than year-ago levels and remain hovering around its 20 year lows as recorded by the long-running University of Michigan survey. Inflation expectations also remained 'stable' at 3.3%.

Meanwhile, the PCE inflation result for December came in at 2.9%, marginally above the Q3 level. That is the highest level since October 2023. Consumer disposable incomes rose +0.9% for the year while personal consumption expenditure rose +1.7% for the year. So it is no wonder households feel under pressure, generally.

In Canada they reported a big surge in producer prices, up +5.4% in January, and well above the expected +4.4%.

Canada also reported December retail sales over the weekend and they fell -0.4% to C$70 bln. Sales were down in three of nine subsectors, led by decreases in vehicle sales. But on a volume basis, things were unchanged. For all of 2025 retail sales rose +4.0% in value terms, up +2.3% in volumes terms.

The UST 10yr yield is now just under 4.09%, down -1 bp from this time Saturday, up a net +3 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is little-changed at +61 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now at just on +13 bps (-1 bp) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is holding at just on +39 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at just on 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 2.11% which is down -10 bps from a week ago. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.73%, down -1 bp from Saturday, up +2 bps for the week. 

The price of gold will start today up +US$33 from Saturday at US$5106/oz. Silver is up +US$1.50 at US$84.50/oz today. This time last week, the gold price was US$5020/oz and the silver price was US$78/oz. Platinum has also moved up sharply overnight to US$2176/oz but only back to its late January level and well off its US$2923 peak on January 26. 2026.

American oil prices are holding at just under US$66.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is still just over US$71.50/bbl. But both are up +6% from this time last week.

The Australian dollar is up +10 bps against the USD from Saturday, now just on 70.8 USc. Against the Japanese yen we are also up +10 bps at ¥109.8. Against the euro we are unchanged at 60.1 euro cents.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$67,604 and virtually unchanged from this time Saturday. But it is down -2.2% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 0.9%.