Revenge tariffs in new twist; US economic data mixed; US voters tired of erratic Trump; Canada factories slow; China holds LPRs; EU car sales dip; UST 10yr at 4.03%; gold down, oil softish; AU$1 = 70.8 USc

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect Australia with news financial markets are treading water today, still trying to assess where US economic policy is headed - if anywhere. The erratic nature of it is building an unsettling backlash.

First up today in the US, their 'new' 10% tariff came into effect overnight as they rebuilt their tariff wall following the Supreme Court decision, but there was no sign of the 15% level threatened in an earlier Trump tweet. They may still be coming, of course. There was also no sign of refunds for illegal tariff collections, but major companies are starting to file lawsuits to claim them.

The updated ADP jobs report for last week delivered a good +12,500 rise. But it is still lower than late 2025 weekly levels.

Meanwhile the Richmond Fed's survey of factories in the mid-Atlantic states declined when a gain was expected. Largely this was because firms there are chafing under the higher costs that tariff-taxes have brought.

And the Dallas Fed's survey of services firms was not positive either, extending the negative run to nine of the past twelve months. Revenues are up but these forms say rising costs have wiped out any of those benefits.

The value of US inventories rose slightly in December according to official data, but not as fast as the value of sales. A key way firms are fighting higher costs is by turning over their smaller inventories faster.

The US Conference Board said consumer confidence edged higher in February but remained well below the heights reached in late 2024. Their analysis is worth the read.

In Canada, advance data for January shows that their manufacturing sector has taken quite a hit.

And the Chinese central bank left its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a ninth consecutive month in February, in line with what market expected, and that seems to show policymakers are not rushing to introduce broad monetary easing after their other recent targeted measures.

European new vehicle registrations also took a hit in January. Passenger car registrations there dropped -3.9% to a five-month low from the same month in 2025, reversing a +5.8% rise in the previous month. This was their first contraction since June.

The UST 10yr yield is now just over 4.03%, little-changed from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is flatter at +57 bps (-2 bps). Their 1-5 curve is now at just on +8 bps (unchanged) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is holding at just on +34 bps (also unchanged). The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at just on 1.79%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 2.11%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.69%, down -3 bps from yesterday.

Wall Street has opened with a partial recovery with the S&P500 up +0.8% so far in Tuesday trade. European markets were little-changed between London's very slight dip and Paris's +0.3% rise. Yesterday, Tokyo rose +0.9%. Hong Kong fell -1.8%, but Shanghai rose +0.9% in its return from CNY. Singapore was fell -0.4%. The ASX200 ended its Tuesday trade little-changed.

The price of gold will start today down -US$64 from yesterday at US$5145/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at US$87.50/oz today.

American oil prices are -50 USc softer at just on US$66/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$71/bbl.

The Australian dollar is up +10 bps against the USD from yesterday, still just on 70.8 USc. Against the Japanese yen we are up +70 bps at ¥110. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just under 60 euro cents.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,023 and down another -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.1%.