Financial markets worry about growing risks; US data mixed; Canada popular with investors; Singapore data strong; container freight rates dip; UST 10yr at 4.02%; gold dips, oil firm; AU$1 = 70.9 USc

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect Australia with news the global economy is in 'somewhat normal' mode today, despite war flare-ups in many places, like between the US and Iran, Thailand and Cambodia, and a new overnight declaration of war by Afghanistan on Pakistan (not to mention the ongoing hot war on Ukraine by Russia).

And it is probably worth keeping an eye on a growing purge of senior officers in the Chinese military.

All this background noise is reinforcing a risk-off tone in financial markets, shown up by negative reactions to Nvidia's good profit result.

In the economic arena, initial US jobless claims fell last week from the previous week but not by as much as seasonal factors would have accounted for. There are now 2.15 mln people on these benefits, marginally less than year-ago levels but still well above the levels two years ago.

Meanwhile, the Kansas City Fed factory survey turned quite positive, including for new order flows. Although the change was only moderately positive, it is the first time this overall index has been above year-ago levels since 2023.

And it is worth noting that the US benchmark 30 year fixed mortgage rate has fallen below 5% for the first time since late 2022. So far at least, it isn't sparking extra life into either their new or existing home sales.

Overnight, Canada reported a surge in foreign investment in Q4-2025, largely investors buying Canadian companies. Inbound investment there is its strongest since 2007.

Also overnight, the Korean central bank reviewed monetary policy, but left its policy rate unchanged at 2.5%. And they signaled that this rate is likely to be on hold for an extended period.

Singapore said its industrial production was up +16.6% in January from a year ago, continuing its strong recent expansion.

They also reported Q4-2025 GDP rose a bit more than expected and ended up +5.0% higher than year-ago levels.

Global container freight rates dipped another minor -1% to be -28% lower than a year ago. Most major routes saw little-change in the past week. Bulk cargo rates are up +3% over the past week but remain just over double year-ago levels

The UST 10yr yield is now just over 4.02%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is holding at +57 bps. Their 1-5 curve is still just on +7 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at just on +34 bps (down -2 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at just on 1.82%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 2.16%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.67%, down -5 bps from yesterday. 

Wall Street has opened with the S&P500 down -1.1% so far in Thursday trade and falling. European markets were mixed between Frankfurt's +0.4% rise and Paris's +0.7% rise. Yesterday, Tokyo rose +0.3%. Hong Kong down -1.4% however, while Shanghai was unchanged. Singapore was fell -0.9%. The ASX200 ended its Thursday trade up +0.5%.

The price of gold will start today down -US$28 from yesterday at US$5181/oz. Silver is down -US$3 at US$87.50/oz today.

American oil prices are up +US$1 at just on US$66.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$1.50 now just over US$72/bbl.

The Australian dollar is down -40 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just on 70.9 USc. Against the Japanese yen we are down -50 bps at ¥110.5. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 60.1 euro cents.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,709 and down -2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, also at just over +/- 2.0%.