IEA calls the Gulf crisis history's worst for oil; US data little-changed; India inflation firms; Australian inflation expectations up; Chalmers looks at 'high 4s' for Aussie Budget; UST 10yr at 4.26%; gold falls and oil rises; AU$1 = 70.9 USc;

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect Australia with news of oil jumping while equities slide as surging crude prices stoke inflation ‌fears. Oil tankers are ablaze. Iran said it will keep the Straits of Hormuz closed and there doesn't seem much Trump can or will do about that.

And the Gulf crisis is severely disrupting global air travel.

Meanwhile the IEA says "The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." (OPEC however seems to be ignoring the folly.)

In the US, jobless claims were little-changed last week at the headline level, the small actual decrease accounted for by seasonal factors. There are now 2.15 mln people on these benefits, very similar to a year ago but a big increase from two years ago.

US housing starts rose in February, just as they did in the same month a year ago and to the same levels.

US exports and imports eased slightly lower in January. Their overall trade deficit fell to -US$ 55 bln in the month largely because services exports rose. From a year ago their deficit is +-US$75 bln lower (-0.2% of GDP.)

Canadian exports fell and their trade surplus with the US narrowed in January while the deficit with other countries widened. They reported a January trade deficit of -C$3.7 bln mostly due to fewer car exports to the US.

India reported CPI inflation of 3.2% for February, up from 2.7% in January and that takes it back to levels they had in April 2025.

In Australia, inflation expectations ticked up further in the March Melbourne Institute survey, up to 5.2% for the year ahead. While this is 'only' a rise from the 5.0% rate in February, it is the highest looking-ahead level this survey has reported since January 2023, and is a significant rise from the 3.6% rate in March 2025. It only adds fuel to the expectations the RBA will hike next week at its review on March 17. Aussie equities fell, benchmark AGB yields rose further, and they were rising even before this news broke.

And in the upcoming Australian budget, talk is they will assume CPI inflation in the "high 4s" for the year ahead.

Global container freight rates rose +8% last week to be now only -10% lower than year-ago levels. Outbound China to the EU was up +19%, to the US West Coast up just +4%. Rates to China fell. Bulk cargo rates fell -14% in the past week as demand dried up. From a year ago these rates are now +36% higher, although the base was weak in 2025.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.26%, up +5 bps from yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is little-changed at +57 bps. Their 1-5 curve is holding at +20 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at just on +54 bps (+3 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is also unchanged at just on 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps bps at 2.18%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.97%, up another +6 bps from yesterday. 

On Wall Street, the S&P500 is lower in Thursday trade, down -1.3% so far Overnight European markets were lower between Frankfurt's -0.7% and Paris's -0.2%. Yesterday Tokyo partially fell -1.0%. Hong Kong dropped -0.7% and Shanghai was down -0.1%. Singapore was down -0.2%. The ASX200 fell -1.3%. 

The price of gold will start today down another -US$52 from yesterday at US$5119/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at US$85/oz today.

American oil prices are up +US$7.50, at just under US$95/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$99.50/bbl. Update: they are now over US$100/bbl. The Straits of Hormuz remain essentially closed, the situation even worse now. The internationally coordinated release of strategic reserves has had essentially no effect.

The Australian dollar has slid -60 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just over 70.9 USc. Against the Japanese yen we are also down -60 bps at ¥112.9. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 61.5 euro cents.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$70,437 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.