US data weaker but mostly second-tier; nine central banks decide to hold their policy rates; Australian labour market marginally softer; UST 10yr at 4.28%; gold dives; oil & gas stay very high; AU$1 = 70.5 USc

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect Australia with news Qatar has being hit hard by Iranian missiles today, upending the global trade in natural gas. In fact, it is clear now there will be a protracted energy shock that everyone needs to adjust to. The impacts are ahead and aren't going away.

Elsewhere, US initial jobless claims came in at +190,000 last week, a slightly bigger dip than seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 2.1 mln people on these benefits, marginally less than a year ago but still above two year-ago levels.

The Philly Fed factory survey for March rose from February although that wasn't due to new orders, which retreated.

Clearly these businesses are not involved in new home construction, because new home sales fell sharply nationally in February to their lowest level since early 2023.

US wholesale inventories fell in January, and their inventory-to-sales ratio fell even sharper. So there is plenty of capability to rebuild inventories to 'normal' levels - but clearly most businesses aren't doing that, choosing to boost cashflow with lower inventory levels.

Elsewhere there were a number of central bank policy rate decisions released overnight. China held its Prime Loan Rates unchanged at record low levels. Taiwan left its policy rate unchanged at 2.00%. Japan also held unchanged at 0.75%. Switzerland held at 0%. Sweden held at 1.75% (link for Governor Breman.) And the ECB was also unchanged at 2.15%. There were others, like the Czech Republic (3.5%), England (3.75%), Moldova (5.0%), and none of those changed either.

Here in Australia, the jobless rate rose to 4.3% in February, up from the 4.1% forecast and levels seen in the previous two months. This is back to the November level. Full time jobs fell -30,500 while part-time jobs rose +79,500. The participation rate hit a four-month high of 66.9%.

Global container freight rates were up only +2% last week to be down only -4% from year-ago levels. In fact these rates have been remarkable stable out of China. But inbound rates to Europe jumped +10%, and transatlantic rates into the US dived -35%. But twisted supply chain pressures will likely change this ahead. Bulk freight rates rose +7.5% in the past week to be +24% higher than year ago levels.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.28%, up +6 bps from yesterday at this time. The key 2-10 yield curve is much flatter at +41 bps (-13 bps). Their 1-5 curve is slightly flatter at +16 bps (-2 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at +60 bps (+6 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at just under 1.82%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 2.27%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.02%, up +9 bps from yesterday and its highest since 2011. 

Wall Street has started Thursday trade with the S&P500 down another -0.5%. Overnight, European markets were sharply lower, between Paris's -2.0% and Frankfurt's -2.8%. Yesterday, Tokyo closed up another sharp +3.4%. Hong Kong ended its Thursday session down -2.0%, and Shanghai fell -1.4%. Singapore ended down -0.7%. The ASX200 closed down -1.7%. 

The price of gold will start today down -US$293 from yesterday at US$4587/oz. Silver is down a massive -US$6.50 at US$70.50/oz.

American oil prices are holding up at just on US$95/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$107/bbl. Both were higher earlier. The Straits of Hormuz remain no-go areas for most with the situation still extremely unstable. The ships transiting are those approved by Iran, which holds all the cards at present. They are talking about charging fees to transit safely. (A tariff !!)

The Australian dollar is little-changed against the USD from yesterday, still just on 70.5 USc. Against the Japanese yen we are down -1100 bps at ¥111.4. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 61.1 euro cents.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$69,465 and down -2.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%.