US sentiment falls further. China and US trade anti-trade probes. China's profits rise. Countries enact various fuel affordability measures. Diesel crisis grows.

Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect Australia with news the Middle East situation is getting worse, with the Yemen-based Houthis into the fray and the Suez entrance now also threatened with closure.

Diesel and jet fuel markets look to be particularly vulnerable to an extended loss of Middle East production and exports, given limited flexibility elsewhere to increase output. Here in Australia, we seem to have low stock levels, 26 days of diesel storage, 19 days of jet fuel storage, and a massive spike in demand for diesel, as users panic buying is upending forecasts there. This situation is looking decidedly dodgy.

The next thing for all of us to watch is ship bunker storage and capacity. And both exporters and importers will be sweating the coming surge in "freight surcharges".

Locally, the main data releases will be around their building permit levels, the Ai Group PMI, and updates of their March housing market activity.

Elsewhere, the week will end with the March non-farm payrolls report in the US where they are expecting a modest +50,00 jobs gain, a partial bounce back after the surprise -96,000 job loss in February. Their March ISM PMI is due out this week too.

In China, there will be March PMIs. From India, February industrial production data. But any recent data from anywhere is now less relevant for guidance about how the rest of 2026 may play out.

Back in the US over the weekend, the updated University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply in March from February. It is now near the record lows at the end of 2025, with declines spanning all age groups and political affiliations. Households with middle and higher incomes, as well as those with stock wealth, experienced the steepest drops in confidence. The US war on Iran and the resulting uncertainty and volatility is driving the bad mood. The short-term economic outlook reported by this respected survey plunged -14%.

US petrol prices are up a third from a month ago, but their diesel prices are up +50% over the same time. Early signs on what this will do to US internal freight costs, before the recent cost bites were not good.

Meanwhile, uncertainty is keeping US oil bosses from investing in new North American oil drilling. They remember the pandemic spike with no fondness, and are trying to avoid the "value destruction" that followed that. They are happy to take the higher profits now without any effort or risk than invest upfront in new drilling and risk a sharp pullback. That view probably applies worldwide.

Uncertainty is suddenly biting consumers harder there, with a notable downturn in Las Vegas visitors - except the high-rollers of course.

Across the Pacific, China has reacted over the weekend to new US anti-trade measures aimed at them, starting new probes of its own aimed at the US. None of this augers well for the upcoming Xi/Trump summit, and anyone hoping for an easing of tensions then may need to reassess. The US policy actions all seem designed to provoke, so reactions from the Chinese should be no surprise. This is not a path to calmer trade tensions.

Profits at China’s industrial firms rose +15.2% in February from a year ago and the best start to the calendar year since 2022. A lot of this was driven by private enterprises (+37.2%), although listed companies saw only weak growth, and some foreign companies suffered retreats. SOE profits rose a modest +5.3%.

Taiwanese consumer sentiment has taken a hit, like everywhere else, now its lowest since January 2023.

Singapore and Malaysia released February producer price data over the weekend and both retreated, for Singapore its fifth straight decline, for Malaysia its 13th. But in both cases, March is unlikely to show the same direction.

India bank loan growth is remaining high, up +13.8% from a year ago in their March 29, 2026 report.

India has rolled back petrol taxes to ease local strains on households. Vietnam has done the same. So have Spain, Portugal, Brazil, and Sweden, so far.

In Melbourne, public transport will be free throughout April as part of a state government effort to encourage motorists to drive less and ease the growing fuel crisis. They follow Tasmania.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.44%, unchanged from Saturday, up +5 bps from a week ago. The key 2-10 yield curve is marginally steeper at +52 bps (+1 bp). Their 1-5 curve is also marginally steeper at +30 bps (+1 bp) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at +75 bps (+1 bp). The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.82%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is also unchanged at 2.38% and still at a 29 year high. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.11%, down -2 bps from Saturday. 

The price of gold will start today down -US$18 from Saturday, now at US$4493/oz, and down -US$80/oz from a week ago. Silver has dipped -50 USc to US$69.50/oz, little-changed for the week.

American oil prices are up another +US$1 at just over US$99.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is up the same at just on US$112.50/bbl. Ship transit traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, already low, has dried up again. Even Chinese ships can't pass now, even empty ones.

The Australian dollar is holding lower against the USD from Saturday, now at 68.8 USc, but down -120 bps for the week. Against the Japanese yen we are down -10 bps at ¥110.1. Against the euro we are holding at just on 59.7 euro cents. 

The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,456 and up +0.4% from this time Saturday, down -4.5% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.7%.