US data weaker; Canada politics shift; Japan sentiment falls; German exports rise; cybersecurity threat from AI; freight rates stable overall; UST 10yr at 4.29%; gold rises as oil higher; AU$1 = 70.9 USc

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect Australia with news the Middle East ceasefire deal is still an imaginary figment.

Meanwhile, US real personal spending rose just +0.1% in February from January after stagnating in January. The few places of expansion were vehicle sales, healthcare, and financial services. This data shows why most Americans don't feel like they are making economic progress. Worse, real disposable personal income fell -0.5% in February.

And the final update of US Q4-2025 economic activity was revised lower yet again. You may recall it was originally touted as a +4.4% growth rate (from the prior quarter). Then the second estimate pegged it at +1.7%. This final update has dropped it to +0.5%, with revisions that reveal lower investment and consumer spending. Year-on-year in real terms, the US economy was +2.0% larger than in Q4-2024, and that is the slowest expansion since Q4-2022, and before that (and except during the pandemic), Q1-2019.

US initial jobless claims rose more than expected to 203,000 last week, far more than seasonal factors would have accounted for (188,000). There are now 1,928 mln people on these benefits, less than a year ago, but more than two years ago.

The April USDA WASDE report shows smaller US beef production, and they raised their beef import forecast based on recent trade data and continued strong demand for lean processing beef (like from Australia).

In Canada, there is some intriguing politics to note. Mark Carney leads a minority, coalition government. But recent defections from the Conservatives, and likely by-election results, could see his Liberal Party governing on its own very soon as a majority party. They are cashing in on Carney's surging popularity.

In Japan, consumer confidence retreated sharply in March from February which was the highest figure since April 2019. The trigger for the fallback is the global uncertainty and the latest data takes their sentiment levels back to those of May 2025.

Malaysia said its industrial production rose +3.1% in February from a year ago. This was sharply less than the +5.5% expected.

Meanwhile, German exports rose more than expected, up +2.9% in February from a year ago, and that was despite a -7.5% fall to the US and a -2.5% fall to China. Their imports rose +1.5% from a year ago.

We should also note that Anthropic's new AI model is getting eye-catching attention. It's abilities has scared even its own developers who have warned Big Tech to prepare for major disruption. Current cyber security is about to get busted big-time.

Global container freight rates rose just +1% last week from the prior week to be +2% higher than year-ago levels. And that was despite sharp increases in China-EU rates that have been roiled by the Middle East conflicts. Bulk cargo rates rose +3.3% over the past week to be +60% higher than year-ago levels.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.29%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is little-changed at +51 bps. Their 1-5 curve is lower however, down -2 bps at +22 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is little-changed at +65 bps (+1 bp). The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 2.38%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.92%, unchanged.

Wall Street is up +0.6% on the S&P500. But European markets all finished lower overnight, between London's -0.1% and Frankfurt's -1.1%. Tokyo was down -0.7% at its Thursday close. Hong Kong fell -0.5% while Shanghai fell -0.7%. Singapore ended down -0.4%. The ASX closed its Thursday trade up +0.2%.

The price of gold will start today up +US$59 at US$4799/oz. (It's record high is US$5422/oz.) Silver is up +US$1.50 at US$76.50/oz.

American oil prices are up +US$3 at just on US$99/bbl, while the international Brent price is up a bit less at just under US$97/bbl.

The Australian dollar is up +60 bps from yesterday at this time at 70.9 USc. Against the Japanese yen we have risen +90 bps to ¥112.6. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 60.5 euro cents.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$72,330 and up +0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.