US inflation surges, confidence tanks. Canada jobs market stable; China inflation low but rises; Taiwan exports star again; diesel armada heads for Australia; UST 10yr at 4.31%; gold eases as oil dips slightly; AU$1 = 70.8 USc; Bitcoin up

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect Australia with news war has clouded 2026, a pall that will likely last all year. The Strait of Hormuz is silent again with little to no movement.

First in the US, their CPI inflation rate jumped to 3.3% in March, about the expected rise. This was all due to fuel prices, especially petrol and diesel. Core inflation, which excludes this and food also moved up but more modestly, to a 2.7% rate. The Fed will be watching to see if this is temporary, and building in.

Still, US oil rig counts are not rising in response to these higher prices. Actually, they fell slightly. With US crude prices higher than Middle East prices, they have decided the best strategy is 'do nothing' and milk the benefits.

So it will be no surprise to know that the University of Michigan sentiment index plummeted in their latest survey to a historic low in early April, far below both market expectations and last year’s low level. Sentiment declined across all demographics, as well as every index component, emphasising the broad-based drop. (But it is also worth noting that this survey was taken before the 'ceasefire' claims.)

Also, there was no growth in US factory orders in February from January, well before the Iran conflict. From a year ago they were up +4.0%, most of that coming earlier in the year.

(And staying in the US, Trump obviously knows he has been operating illegally, and is now offering mass pardons for those that do his bidding. He will also most likely pardon himself. He has been enriching himself by trading insider information.)

In Canada, their March labour market report showed little-change, with overall employment rising a minor +14,000 holding at just over 21 mln. There were also few changes in either full-time or part-time employment, and the jobless rate stayed unchanged at 6.7%

In Korea, their central bank kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.25%. They have an inflation date of 2.2% but expect this to rise in the current environment.

China said its CPI inflation rate was +1.0% in March from a year ago, a smaller rise than expected and lower than the February +1.3% rate (which was a three year high). Food prices only rose +0.3% year-on-year, restrained by pork and fresh vegetables. Beef prices were up +7.8% from a year ago, lamb prices up +6.8%. Dairy product prices fell -0.7% on the same basis.

China also released its producer price data today which shows them suddenly out of deflation, with PPI up +0.5% from a year ago in March, the first time since September 2022, and prior to the pandemic distortion, the first time since early 2019.

There was a sharp drop in vehicle sales in China in March (down -8.8%) after Beijing cut subsidies. That has turned their automakers to chasing export orders, and their appetite is desperate, and a threat to most of the world's other carmakers.

In Taiwan, their export machine delivered another spectacular result in March, after the easing in February. Their exports were up to yet another record high of US$80 bln, a gain of +62% from the same month a year ago. Imports were up +59% on that same basis.

German inflation was confirmed at 2.7% in March, the same as their preliminary estimate, and back up to levels last seen in January 2024.

Here in Australia, the ABS has just released some interesting data on the labour hire sector. Over there as at December 2025, 351,000 Aussies had a job in labour supply services, and for 297,800 (85%) it was their main job. 2.3% of all employed people had a job in labour supply services in December 2025. 68% of labour hire workers worked full-time (August 2024). 74% of them did not have paid leave entitlements, and 26% would prefer to work more hours (August 2024).

And the Albanese trip to Singapore to source fuel, especially diesel, caps an effective open-chequebook campaign to acquire what they need, with a virtual armada of ships to arrive in Australia over the next few weeks. The list here is interesting. We count 56 ships in that wave, some even from the US.

It is probably worth noting that China said it will ban exports of sulphuric acid, a move that will handicap[ copper mining, among other industries including the fertiliser industries. The copper price rose. And of course the sulphur price was already at a record high before that move. The urea price rose, back to the pandemic extremes. To be clear, there is no formal Chinese announcement of this latest curb, only producers there telling clients that they will be blocked from suppling them from May.

And the IMF said the war on Iran will mean slower growth this year because of the destruction of energy infrastructure and supply chain disruptions. Not really 'news' but their analysis is compelling, and 2026 could be a write-off for any 'recovery'.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.31%, up +2 bps from this time Friday but down -4 bps from this time last week. The key 2-10 yield curve is again little-changed at +51 bps. Their 1-5 curve is steeper however, up +2 bps at +24 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is also steeper at +67 bps (+2 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.82%, unchanged from last week. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +7 bps at 2.45%, the same for the week. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.00%, up +8 bps from Friday, down -1 bps from a week ago.

Wall Street is little-changed in Friday trade, down -0.1% on the S&P500. But that is a +3.5% rise for the week. European markets all finished little-changed as well overnight. Tokyo rose +1.8% in its Friday trade to be up +7.0% for the week. Hong Kong rose +0.5% on Friday for a weekly gain of +2.1% while Shanghai also rose +0.5% on Friday for a +1.5% weekly gain. Singapore ended up +0.2%. The ASX closed its Friday trade down -0.1% for a weekly gain of +3.2%. 

The Fear & Greed index is now in the 'fear' zone, shifting from 'extreme fear' last week.

The price of gold will start today down -US$31 at US$4768/oz, but up +US$92 for the week. Silver is holding at US$76.50/oz.

American oil prices are down -US$2.50 at just on US$96.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down = a bit less at just under US$95/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$11.50 and US$109/bbl respectively.

The Australian dollar is unchanged from yesterday at this time at 70.8 USc. But that is a +190 bps appreciation (+2.8%) from this time last week. Against the Japanese yen we have risen +30 bps to ¥112.8. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at just on 60.3 euro cents.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$72,976 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. But it has made a substantial +9.0% move up since this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.3%.