Hormuz 'opening' was a US fantasy; Canada data resilient; Indian loan growth rises; China excavator sales jump; Malaysia inflation tame with good growth; UST 10yr at 4.24%; gold and oil prices ease; AU$1 = 71.7 USc

Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect Australia with news expectations of an imminent resolution of the Persian Gulf standoff have stalled. Iranian officials have reversed reopening the Strait of Hormuz after the US refused to end its blockade of Iranian ports. Ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz have been fired on.

This is expected to weigh on financial markets when they open later today.

This week locally there are no major economic data releases, although we will get a flash report on the April PMI for Australia.

In the US, apart from earnings updates, they too will get a flash April PMI, and confirmation hearings for Kevin Warsh will put this billionaire in the spotlight.

In China, PMI results will also feature in a light data week. In Japan, it will be about March trade data and retail sales. Central banks will review their monetary policy settings and rates in China, Malaysia and the Philippines this week.

Over the weekend, Iran confirmed what most people understood - Trump was 'claiming victory' without any deals in place, and that is making ship transit of the Straits of Hormuz hazardous again. It looks like the progress claimed was a mirage.

In Canada, small business sentiment rose in April, an unexpected shift but likely due to local election results. The trade group that does this survey says it is still weak, but it is actually back to the levels that prevailed prior to the pandemic.

But Canadian housing starts sagged somewhat in March, coming in below February levels and what was expected. But they are now +6.9% higher than year-ago levels.

Indian loan growth reached +16.1% in the year to March according to official data released overnight. That is the fastest pace they have recorded since they started tracking this metric in April 2025.

In China, their construction machinery sector rose strongly in March with excavator sales up nearly +30%, of which domestic demand was up almost +24%.

Malaysian CPI inflation remained tame in March, up just +1.7%, although that was their highest rate since the beginning of 2025. They also reported that Q1-2026 economic activity rose +5.3%, and slightly less than the +5.5% expected.

Meanwhile, Singaporean exports were up +15.3% from a year ago, their second fasted monthly rise since mid 2024.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.24%, down -1 bp from this time Saturday and the same for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +54 bps. Their 1-5 curve is still at +20 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +58 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.77%, up +1 bp. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 2.42%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.00%, up +2 bps from Saturday. 

The price of gold will start today down -US$28 at US$4829/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at US$81/oz.

American oil prices are down -50 USc at just under US$84, while the international Brent price is also down -50 USc, and now at US$90.50/bbl. These new levels are down -US$12 and -US$4/bbl respectively. The North American rig counts fell again. Tonight, all eyes will be on the IEA's April update of the global oil situation.

The Australian dollar is unchanged from Saturday at this time at 71.7 USc, up +140 bps for the week. Against the Japanese yen we are up +10 bps at ¥113.7. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 60.9 euro cents.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,842 and down -3.0% from this time Saturday. A week ago it was US$72,976. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.1%.