Hormuz situation looked set to unravel again until Trump TACO'd; Warsh testifies; US data 'strong'; Taiwan stars again; supermarket pricing in Aussie spotlight; UST 10yr at 4.29%; gold falls but oil prices rise; AU$1 = 71.6 USc

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect Australia with news the US-wished resumption of talks with Iran don't seem to be happening. The Strait of Homuz remains closed, and even if it was re-opened it is never going back to 'normal'. It seems Trump has effectively generated to global push necessary to transition away from fossil fuels. Oil company share prices are retreating. Big investors are trying to offload their coal assets. China's green-tech is in demand everywhere, including in the US. We are now in the age of electricity where demand is surging.

And Trump has TACO'd again, extending his unilateral ceasefire indefinitely.

Meanwhile the Warsh confirmation hearings in the US are following the predictable partisan scripts.

But first, in the US there was another strong indicator from the weekly ADP employment report, the second in a row.

And US retail sales came in better than expected for March, up +4.6% from a year ago, about twice the increase as for February. And that is their biggest rise in a year. But of course much of this will be inflation-related and much just came from the spike in retail petrol prices.

US pending home sales were up in March from February although the gain was less than in the prior month. That still leaves these residential real estate sales -1.1% lower than year ago levels.

Taiwanese export orders blew past all expectations yet again coming in at US$91.1 bln for March, up +67% from a year ago and up +18.5% above the prior stunning record high. Adjectives fail to adequately describe what is happening here.

The German ZEW sentiment survey fell much sharper than the expected fall in April.

Here in Australia, the ACCC's court case against supermarket giants Coles and Woolworths regarding deceptive pricing practices over 'specials' is capturing attention.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.29%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +51 bps (-2 bps). Their 1-5 curve is at +23 bps (+2 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +65 bps (+6 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.75%, down -1 bp. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 2.39%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.95%, up +2 bps from yesterday. 

Wall Street has opened its Tuesday trade softer with the S&P500 down another -0.6%. Overnight, European markets were even softer, down between Paris's -1.1% and Frankfurt's -0.6%. But yesterday Tokyo closed up +0.9%, Hong Kong was up +0.5% and Shanghai also rose but only by +0.1%. Singapore ended +0.2% firmer. The ASX200 closed little-changed. 

And we should probably note that US private credit funds are about to report their March results and especially in the direct lending sector redemptions are expected to far exceed new investment. It is notable that big-money, wealthy investors are leading the retreat and probably leaving late-arriving retail investors with very damaged positions.

Interestingly, there are similar, although not as severe, pressures in China's private credit markets too.

The price of gold will start today down -US$92 at US$4715/oz. Silver is down -US$3.50 at US$76.50/oz.

American oil prices are up +50 USc at just over US$89.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$3, and now at US$98/bbl.

The Australian dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at this time at 71.6 USc. Against the Japanese yen we are unchanged at ¥114. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just on 60.9 euro cents.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$75,782 and off a minor -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest also at just on +/- 1.2%.