SpaceX lists strongly; Trump can't get Iran to sign; Trump blocks Strait of Detroit, China loans weak; Malaysia stars; India struggles; UST 10yr at 4.48%; gold recovers more as oil retreats more; AU$1 = 70.5 USc

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect Australia, with news SpaceX completed its historic Initial Public Offering earlier today on the Nasdaq exchange, listing with the ticker symbol SPCX. The stock opened for public trading at US$135/share and rose to US$161 at the close of trade today with a +19% gain and valuing the company at over US$2 tln. It only offered 550 mln shares of the 13.1 bln issued. Still, that 4% raised US$75 bln making it the largest IPO in history, and far surpassing the Aramco 2019 listing which was the previous record holder at US$38 bln.

There is still no word on any US-Iran deal being signed, preliminary or permanent.

In the real world, American consumers felt the cost of living pressure ease slightly in June as petrol prices came back off their recent war highs. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose in early June, up from May’s all-time low and a better than expected recovery. It was a modest recovery all the same with improvements seen across all age, education, and political groups. Lower-income consumers, for whom fuel represents a larger share of budgets, showed a particularly strong rebound even if it is still deeply negative and its second lowest of all time.

In Canada, the Trump Administration is still blocking the opening of a new public-owned bridge to Detroit - because a large Trump donor has a monopoly on the ownership of the one alternative.

Across the Pacific, after April's surprise decline, China's May new yuan loans resumed their growth, up +5.5% from a year ago with a modest +¥520 bln rise, about what was expected (+¥550 bln). Still, at that level it is the weakest May increase in eighteen years, as the usual suspect - the property market - continues to drag on bank lending.

Malaysia's industry is in an upswing. Its manufacturing sector expanded +9.1% in April from a year ago, expanding sharply from its +3.1% growth in March and easily beating the expected +4% result. It was their strongest expansion since September 2022, and was broad-based across all sub-sectors.

Malaysia's retail sector is on the move up as well, itself with a heady +6.3% rise in April from a year ago, substantially aided by strong car sales. Retail sales volumes rose +3.9%, confirming the impressive result.

Indian CPI inflation is rising again, up +3.9% in the year to May and slightly faster than expected. That is the highest rate since the start of 2025. Food inflation was up +4.8%. To be fair, they also have both gold and silver in their CPI basket.

India bank loan growth is now getting out of hand. It was up +17.7% in May from a year ago. It is not helping that the Indian currency is extremely weak. And that is not helped by their oil import vulnerability and the relentless devaluation is driving those with funds to shift them out of India, making the situation worse. The Indian central bank has been forced to intervene in currency markets to support the rupee. It has also been making policy changes to attract foreign investment. They are in a very difficult spot.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.48%, up +3 bps for the day, down -6 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +40 bps (+2 bps). Their 1-5 curve is now at +35 bps (+2 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +81 bps (unchanged). The China 10 year bond rate was down -1 bp at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -6 bps at 2.62%, down -3 bps for the week. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.81%, also down -3 bps from yesterday, down -14 bps for the week. 

Wall Street has ended its week with a +0.5% rise on the S&P500 in Friday trade, down a minor net -0.1% for the week. The Nasdaq is up +0.3% for a -0.7% decline for the week. Overnight, European markets were were all +1.8% firmer except London which was up +1.6%. Yesterday, Tokyo recovered +2.8% in Friday trade, but up only +0.1% for the week. Hong Kong rose +1.9% to be up +0.6% for the week. Shanghai rose +1.1% for a weekly +2.4% surge. Singapore was up +0.8% in Friday trade. The ASX200 closed up a full +2.0% in Friday trade to end its week up +1.1%. 

The Fear & Greed index has stayed back into the 'fear' zone where it was last week.

The price of gold has recovered +US$66 from yesterday at US$4218/oz but down -US$106 for the week. Silver is up US$2 at US$68/oz and the same as last week at this time.

Oil prices are down -US$2 from yesterday at just under US$84.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$87/bbl. A week ago these two prices were US$90.50 and US$93/bbl respectively. Hormuz transits have dried up again with only 2 in the past 24 hours after yesterday's brief stampede. And global oil reserves are draining into uncharted territory.

The Australian dollar is up +20 bps from this time yesterday at just under 70.5 USc, up +40 bps for the week. Against the Japanese yen we are up +40 bps at ¥113. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at just on 60.9 euro cents.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,846 and up +1.0% from this time yesterday. That is a +6.1% rise from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.3%.