Relief rally underway on Hormuz deal; US data wobbly; Canada data resilient; India exports strong; US pressures France over digital services tax; UST 10yr at 4.46%; gold up and oil down sharply; AU$1 = 70.8 USc

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect Australia, with news the US-Iran deal is being viewed with relief by financial markets, but commodity markets are less enthusiastic. Commodity prices are expected to remain higher than they were in February, before the US and Israel attacked Iran, even after this latest deal to end the war, as it will take months for risk premiums to retreat and give breathing space to commodity-importing economies.

However first today, American manufacturing output stalled in May from April to be +1.4% higher than year-ago levels and a lower improvement than expected.

Also coming in weaker than expected was the June factory survey for the New York region although they did report a small rise in new orders. The pace of input cost increases remains very elevated however.

Meanwhile NAHB survey of housebuilders was little-changed in June, remaining weak on affordability concerns.

In Canada, May housing starts dipped from the prior month but remain high on an historical basis.

Canada also said its April industrial production was strong, with manufacturing sales up +4.2% following a +3.4% rise in March. Sales rose in 17 of the 21 subsectors, led by the fuel products and food subsectors.

India said its exports rose to US$45.2 bln in May, a record high for them and +18% above the May 2025 level.

After three months of declines, industrial production rose in April in the EU in a better than expected result (even if the rise was quite minor).

And France is facing US pressure for attempting to get the US tech giant to pay some tax on their French operations. Big Tech has weaponised its support of the US President to try and avoid France's 3% digital services tax. Even that is too much for them. Relying on US tech is risky, and those risks got larger with the US banning key new Anthropic products "from export".

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.46%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +41 bps (+1 bp). Their 1-5 curve is now at +34 bps (-1 bp) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +80 bps (-2 bps). The China 10 year bond rate little-changed at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -7 bps at 2.57%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.85%, up +3 bps from yesterday. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -6 bps at 4.44%.

Wall Street has started its week strongly with the S&P500 up +1.8% and the Nasdaq up +2.9%. Overnight, European markets were mixed between Frankfurt's +1.4% rise and London's -0.4% retreat. Tokyo ended its Monday session up an eye-catching +5.0%. Hong Kong however only rose +0.5% with Shanghai up +1.6%. Singapore rose +1.0%. The ASX200 ended its Monday session up +1.2%. 

The price of gold has recovered further, up +US$99 from yesterday to US$4321/oz. Silver is up +US$2.50 to US$70/oz.

Oil prices are down -US$4.50 from yesterday at just under US$80.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$83/bbl. Hormuz transits are still minimal with no significant movements of crude or product tankers overnight.

The US went to war with Iran because they would not "negotiate" their surrender. Now Trump claims peace based on a negotiation with a regime he cannot defeat nor control. Likely the "worst deal ever". What could possibly go wrong?

The Australian dollar is up +30 bps from this time yesterday at just on 70.8 USc. Against the Japanese yen we are up +50 bps at ¥113.4. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just under 61 euro cents.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,868 and up +5.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.9%.