US & Iran sign MOU, leaving Iran stronger; US data mixed; Canada PPI leaps; many central bank decisions; freight rates rise; Hormuz transits pick up; UST 10yr at 4.44%; gold down and oil down; AU$1 = 70.2 USc

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect Australia, with news financial markets may be moving on from the US-Iran deal, but commodity markets are noting that Iran will now have the opportunity to charge for transit ('fees' but no 'tolls') after a key US concession. The MOU is signed.

In the US, jobless claims dipped slightly last week to 219,500 but at about the rate expected as what seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now just under 1.7 mln people on these benefits, marginally less than a year ago.

The Philly Fed factory survey recovered in June after the poor report for May, but only to a level below its 2026 average. These firms said prices paid moved up while the prices they got for their goods dipped.

Meanwhile the US Conference Board's leading index rose marginally in May, and this metric suggests it may be coming to the end of its long term down trend that started in 2022.

In Canada, producer prices were up +13.6% in May from a year earlier with +1.2% of that coming in the latest month. Of course, most of this was energy related. In fact raw materials costs were up +33% from a year ago within the overall result.

There was a lot of central bank action overnight, all timed to follow the US Fed. Taiwan held its policy rate unchanged at 2.0% as expected. Indonesia hike again, up +25 bps to 5.75% quickly following last week's out-of-cycle emergency hike to support their currency.

The central Bank of England held unchanged at 2.75% (with two of their nine members wanting a hike). The Swiss central bank held at 0%. The Norwegian central bank held at 4.25%. And the Swedish central bank held at 1.75% a day ago. All these came after last week's +25 bps rise by the ECB.

Global container freight rates surged another +12% last week to be +21% higher than this time last year. There were increases in all major trades but the China-EU trade got the biggest hit. Meanwhile, bulk cargo rates fell -8% over the past week to be +36% higher than year ago levels.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.44%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +27 bps (down -9 bps in a notable flattening). Their 1-5 curve is now at +23 bps (-7 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +78 bps (unchanged). The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 2.61%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.79%, up +2 bps from yesterday. 

Wall Street bounced back today with the S&P500 up +0.9% and the Nasdaq is up +1.5%. Overnight, European markets closed up +0.4%, except London which fell -1.0%. Tokyo ended its Thursday session up +1.6% to a new record high. Hong Kong however fell -1.6% and Shanghai fell -0.4%. Singapore rose +0.7%. The ASX200 ended its Thursday session down -0.6%.

The price of gold has retreated another -US$44 from yesterday to US$4229/oz. Silver is down another -US$2 at US$66/oz.

Oil prices are down -US$1 from yesterday at just under US$75.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$78.50/bbl and down -50 USc. Hormuz transits are picking up with 13 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours and 13 entering for new loads. (Normal is 60 in each direction.)

The Australian dollar is down -50 bps from this time yesterday at just on 70.2 USc. Against the Japanese yen we are unchanged at ¥113.3. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 6.2 euro cents. 

The bitcoin price starts today at US$62,623 and down -5.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.0%.