US payrolls don't grow, other US data soft; China holiday migration hits record; EU inflation rises; Brazil votes; UST 10yr at 5.28%; gold softer and oil holds high on renewed attacks; AU$1 = 69.6 USc

Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect Australia, with news the cost of crude oil is stuck at US$100/bbl still despite G7 promises to release reserves, principally because of Trump's renewed threats at Iran. Resolution of a key driver of inflation and policy uncertainty seems far off.

This week will be quiet from an economic data point of view in Australia where the focus will be on updated consumer sentiment surveys, and a key inflation expectations survey. And don't overlook that some key Australian eastern states have started summer time (except in Queensland of course).

Next week, the focus will remain on the US-Iran standoff and efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bring an end to the conflict in the Middle East. The bond market will also remain in the spotlight following the recent surge in government bond yields both in the US, and in France. 

In the US, services PMIs and preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data will drop this week. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of India will announce its monetary policy decision. The OPEC meeting, and developments surrounding Brazil’s presidential election round one this weekend will also remain key events for global markets.

In China, markets will remain closed for the Golden Week holiday through October 7, with no major economic releases scheduled for next week. But we will be watching holiday economic activity.

In Japan, we will be watching machine tool orders, and the Reuters Tankan index for October. Taiwan will release export and trade figures. 

Over the weekend the G7 has agreed to a major release of strategic fuel reserves to keep a lid on energy prices. But so far the news hasn't really moved the cost of crude. And there was disappointing data out in the world's largest economy.

US non-farm payrolls were expected to rise +90,000 in September following the August +162,000 gain - a level that lacked confirmation from just about every other labour market metric. The actual September data was out on Saturday and that involved some embarrassing reversals. Not only was the August level revised sharply lower (-19%), the September headline gain was reported at just +29,000. Regular gains in this headline number above +200,000 ended when Trump took office in early 2024.

But we also look at the actual data behind these seasonally adjusted headline numbers and that reveals a much more stable situation with a gain of +333,000 from August, about the same gain in each of the prior two years from July to August although these gains were very much larger in the years 2019 to 2023. That is the payroll data. But the wider situation that includes all people working, there was an even better improvement in September from August, but the seasonal patterns here have gotten very random recently. That throws the veracity of this data into question, especially as it coincides with the change in leadership of this agency, from proper statisticians to political appointees. We should all regard BLS data with caution these days - even the poor results.

US vehicle sales fell to a 16.0 mln annual rate in September, well lower than expected 16.6 mln rate and the lowest sales rate since February.

New factory orders were little-changed in August from July which was a fast slowing but what was expected. However they are now +8.8% higher than August a year ago following gains earlier in the year. Much of that is data center buildout because computer equipment orders were up +17.5% on that year-on-year basis.

In China, which is on its week-long holiday, there is some encouraging data about internal activity and spending emerging. Their railway network handled 25.2 mln passenger trips on Friday, the first day of the holiday, setting a new single-day record.

There was some interesting data out over the weekend from the EU, who reported Euro Area CPI inflation at 3.8% in September, far higher than August's already high 3.2% and above the expected 3.5%.

They also reported a lower current account surplus of +1.6% of GDP in Q2-2026, down from +2.0% in Q1-2026. It was also lower than for Q2-2025.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 5.28%, unchanged from Saturday, up +12 bps for the week. The 30 year yield is at 5.63%, unchanged for a weekly rise of +14 bps. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +45 bps (up +1 bp). Their 1-5 curve is now at +59 bps (-1 bp) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +133 bps (-2 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.68%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is now at 3.10%, up +1 bp from Saturday, up just +2 bp for the week. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.34%, unchanged from Saturday, down -5 bps for the week. 

The price of gold is at US$4140/oz and up a minor +US$2 from Saturday, down -US$150 for the week. Silver is at just over US$60.50/oz and up +50 USc today, down -US$4/oz for the week.

Oil prices have dipped -50 USc/bbl from Saturday to just over US$91/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up +50 USv to US$102.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$92.50 and US$104.50/bbl respectively. The G7 has agreed to release more from their strategic reserves. It is a deal that removes the threat of the US banning diesel exports. And we should note a flurry on missile attacks on tankers in the Hormuz region in the past few days.  Hormuz transits have reduced today with just five ships exiting over the past 24 hours, only 1 of which is a tanker escorted (1 dark with transponders off) and 5 entering for new loads (0 dark). Looming new conflict clouds the situation again. The Red Sea activity is down to 15 vessels in either direction at the Yemen chokepoint, reduced on the same rise in tension.

The Australian dollar is up +10 bps from Saturday, now at just on 69.6 USc. Against the Japanese yen we are up +10 bps at ¥109.8. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at just on 61.8 euro cents.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$85,373 and up +0.8% from Saturday, up +1.1% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.5%.