As the expanded Home Deposit Guarantee launches, the supply squeeze fuels sharp price growth. September housing markets had their strongest price rise since October 2023

This is the September Cotality report. The original is here.

Australian housing markets are gathering strength as we head further into spring, with September marking the strongest monthly gain for national dwelling values since October 2023. The Cotality Home Value Index (HVI) recorded a 0.8% increase in September, powered by robust growth conditions across the capital cities, where values rose 0.9% over the month.

On a quarterly basis, the national HVI increased 2.2%, up from a 1.5% lift in the June quarter and double the 1.1% increase seen over the three months to March. In dollar terms, the September quarter rise was equivalent to a $18,215 increase in the median dwelling value.

Growth has once again become broad-based, with every capital city and rest-of-state region recording an increase in dwelling values over the month, quarter and most recent 12-month period. That being said, some divergence in the pace of growth is once again emerging.  

Perth and Brisbane are again pulling ahead of the larger capitals, with values up 4.0% and 3.5% respectively through the September quarter, with the pace of gains being led by the unit market. Darwin is showing an even stronger run of growth with values jumping 5.9% higher over the past three months.

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Cotality’s research director, Tim Lawless, notes that each of these cities continue to show a severe lack of advertised supply. “The number of homes for sale at the end of September was about 53% lower than average in Darwin, 45% below average in Perth and down 31% in Brisbane. At the same time, estimates for quarterly home sales are tracking above average, demonstrating a clear disconnect between demand and supply.”

Most cities are seeing stronger growth rates for houses than units, with capital city values up 2.4% and 1.7% respectively through the September quarter. However, Brisbane is the outlier, with unit values consistently rising at a faster pace than house values over the past seven quarters due to a severe supply shortage. Perth and Hobart have also seen unit values outpace houses in the September quarter, though this trend has been less consistent than in Brisbane.  

Home values have risen across each of the broad value tiers. However, the strongest pace of growth has rippled from the lower quartile of the market to the broad middle. This is likely a reflection of increased borrowing capacity thanks to lower interest rates, which in turn is supporting demand at slightly higher price points.

Across the combined capitals, lower quartile dwelling values were up 2.6% through the September quarter, compared with a 2.7% rise across the middle of the market and a 1.8% increase in upper quartile values.

Advertised stock levels are below average across every capital city adding to the momentum in home value growth. Over the four weeks to September 28th, capital city listings tracked about 18% below the previous five-year average. Meanwhile, estimates of sales activity through the September quarter were 7.3% above the previous five-year average.

The disconnect between supply and demand has seen selling conditions strengthen. Auction clearance rates have been holding around the 70% mark since mid-August, up from an average of roughly 63% through the June quarter and 62% in the three months to March.