Roy Morgan surveys show the September 2026 risk of mortgage stress was 31.8%; up a large 7.9% points since January

New research from Roy Morgan shows 31.8% of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to September 2026, down 0.5% points from August 2026, but up a large 7.9% points since January after four interest rate increases from the Reserve Bank (RBA) this year.

After raising interest rates in February (+0.25%), March (+0.25%), May (+0.25%), the RBA elected to leave interest rates unchanged in June and August, before raising interest rates again in late September (+0.25%) to a 15-year high of 4.6%.

A share of 31.8% of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress is equivalent to 1,750,000 people – up a large 566,000 so far this year.

The record high of 35.6% of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress was reached in mid-2008 when official interest rates hit a 30 year high of 7.25% (March – September 2008).

The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress is up 389,000 on a year ago

The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress is up 389,000 on a year ago after the RBA raised interest rates four times over the last 12 months. As a result of these changes, interest rates were at 4.6% in September 2026, 1% higher than a year earlier in September 2025

The number of Australians considered ‘Extremely At Risk’, is now numbered at a record high 1,262,000 (23% of mortgage holders) significantly above the long-term average over the last two decades of 16.5%.

Mortgage Stress – % of Owner-Occupied Mortgage-Holders

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Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), average interviews per 3-month period April 2007 – September 2026, n=2,906. Base: Australians 14+ with owner occupied home loan.

Mortgages ‘At Risk’ set to rise as the Reserve Bank increases interest rates again

The Reserve Bank (RBA) has raised interest rates four times so far this year. These increases were due to the official ABS annual inflation rate being above the RBA’s preferred target range of 2-3%. Official estimates of inflation were at 4% in the year to August 2026; well above the RBA’s preferred target range.

Because of this, Roy Morgan has modelled the impact of potential RBA interest rate increases at their meetings next week in early November (+0.25% to 4.85%) and in early December (+0.25% to 5.1%).

If the RBA increases interest rates by +0.25% to a 19-year high of 4.85% next week, the share of mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ would increase to 33.1% (up 1.3% points from now), and equivalent to a new record high 1,821,000 mortgage holders, up 71,000 from now.

Looking forward into December, and another potential RBA interest rate increase of +0.25% to 5.1%, the share of mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ would then increase to 34.3% (up 2.5% points from now), and equivalent to a new record high 1,887,000 mortgage holders, up 137,000 from now.

Mortgage Risk projections based on an interest rate increases in November & December 2026

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Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), July 2026 – September 2026, n=3,638.
Base: Australians 14+ with owner occupied home loan.

How are mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ or ‘Extremely At Risk’ determined?

Roy Morgan considers the risk of ‘mortgage stress’ among mortgage holders in two ways:

Mortgage holders are considered ‘At Risk’[1] if their mortgage repayments are greater than a certain percentage of household income – depending on income and spending.

Mortgage holders are considered ‘Extremely at Risk’[2] if even the ‘interest only’ is over a certain proportion of household income.

Unemployment is the key factor which has the largest impact on income and mortgage stress

It is worth understanding that Roy Morgan uses a conservative forecasting model, essentially assuming all other factors apart from interest rates remain the same.

The latest figures on mortgage stress show weakness in employment markets negatively impacting levels of household income. This impact is supported by the latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimates which show over 3 million Australian workers are either unemployed or under-employed – 3,041,000 (19.4% of the workforce); (In September, Australian ‘real unemployment’ drops 1.1% to 10.6%, driven by an increase in employment and a decline in the workforce).

Although the Reserve Bank’s decision to cut interest rates three times last year had a positive impact and helped lower mortgage stress, since the turn of the year the Reserve Bank has reversed course and has now increased interest rates on four occasions this year in February, March, May, and at the end of September.

Despite the actions of the Reserve Bank, the fact remains the greatest impact on an individual, or household’s, ability to pay the mortgage is not interest rates, it’s if they lose their job or main source of income.

These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

The original report is here.